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基于非线性系统理论的政府建设项目全生命周期投资控制研究
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本书是工程项目管理和工程造价控制的交叉性前沿问题研究,涉及宏观经济管理和微观项目投资控制,既有理论探讨又有实践方法研究。本书是工程项目管理和工程造价控制的交叉性前沿问题研究,涉及宏观经济管理和微观项目投资控制,既有理论探讨又有实践方法研究。
本书是工程项目管理和工程造价控制的交叉性前沿问题研究,涉及宏观经济管理和微观项目投资控制,既有理论探讨又有实践方法研究。本书针对我国普遍存在的现实问题展开,在大量借鉴发达国家经验的基础上,结合我国的具体情况和发展动态,从政府投资建设项目全面投资确定理论和方法、全面投资控制理论和方法、全面投资管理理论和方法三个方面展开了深入研究,建立了适合我国国情的、符合国际惯例的政府投资建设项目全面投资控制模式。建设项目管理者、高校教师、造价工程师、概预算人员及业界实践者都能从本书中获益,本书可以作为上述人员的工作参考用书。
王新征,南阳师范学院土木建筑工程学院,副院长,副教授,国家一级建造师、注册造价师、投资咨询工程师,2006年毕业于石家庄铁道学院,同年进入南阳师范学院工作,副教授职称,自工作以来一直从事工程管理和工程造价的教学和研究工作,具有较强的专业理论、工程经验和科研能力,主持和参与多项相关领域的国家、省部级课题。目前在国内外知名期刊发表学术论文50多篇,期中被EI收录15篇,荣获省市级自然科学学术奖2项。
第1章概述11.1研究目的11.1.1现实问题的迫切需要11.1.2国内外现状分析21.2研究内容51.2.1基于非线性理论的政府投资建设项目投资确定的理论和方法研究51.2.2基于非线性理论的政府投资建设项目投资控制理论和方法研究71.2.3政府投资建设项目全面投资组织管理的理论和方法研究71.3研究意义81.4研究思路81.5研究特色和创新之处91.6研究应用前景9第2章政府投资建设项目概述112.1政府投资建设项目112.1.1投资项目112.1.2政府投资建设项目122.2政府投资建设项目的分类和特点132.2.1政府投资建设项目的分类132.2.2政府投资建设项目的特点132.3政府投资建设项目的管理主体152.3.1投资主体152.3.2决策主体162.3.3管理主体162.4政府投资建设项目管理182.4.1建设程序管理制度182.4.2政府采购制度182.4.3工程合同管理制192.4.4建设监理制192.4.5政府投资建设项目的评审与财务管理制度192.4.6政府投资建设项目的监督202.5小结21第3章政府投资建设项目全生命周期成本的确定理论和方法223.1以全生命周期投资(WLC)理论为基础233.2运用显著性成本(CS)模型简化投资确定和控制程序283.2.1显著性成本(CS)的基本思想283.2.2CSIs的一致性303.2.3CSIs方法简化WLC计算和控制过程303.2.4CSIs方法在全生命周期各个阶段的应用323.3基于CS理论和BP神经网络理论的工程造价估算323.3.1神经网络的基本理论323.3.2BP神经网络在CSIs估算中的应用393.3.3案例413.4基于混沌理论和CS理论的工程造价估算研究433.4.1混沌理论简介433.4.2构建混沌时间序列预测模型443.4.3实际案例493.5模糊聚类(FC)法预测拟建项目投资553.5.1模糊聚类(FC)法进行类似性判别的方法和步骤553.5.2已完工程项目聚类分析583.5.3待测工程项目归类583.5.4工程造价模糊测算593.6模糊推理系统(FIS)预测拟建项目投资603.6.1模糊推理系统(FIS)建立过程603.6.2模糊推理系统(FIS)在投资估算中的应用623.7基于WLCS和GA的投资估算模型633.7.1遗传算法的基本理论633.7.2基于WLCS和GA的投资决策模型643.8结论703.8.1对CS理论的评价703.8.2对混沌理论的评价713.8.3对BP神经网络方法的评价713.8.4对FIS的评价723.8.5对FC方法的评价723.8.6对遗传算法的评价723.8.7小结73第4章政府投资建设项目全生命周期成本的控制理论和方法754.1运用EVM和GM(1,1)方法预测及监控CSIs项目的施工进度754.1.1已获价值理论EVM的基本参数及指标754.1.2原因分析及改进措施774.1.3根据已完工程的ACWP、BCWP,利用GM(1,1)预测后续CSIs的ACWP、BCWP794.1.4案例824.2利用庞德里亚金极值原理优化政府项目的投资834.2.1庞德里亚金极值原理834.2.2庞德里亚金极值优化原理在政府投资建设项目投资控制中的应用914.3小结96第5章政府投资建设项目全面投资管理理论和方法研究975.1发达国家和地区政府建设项目的管理模式借鉴975.1.1美国模式975.1.2德国模式1035.1.3英国的政府投资建设项目管理情况1085.1.4日本政府工程管理体系1115.1.5新加坡政府投资建设项目的管理1145.1.6发达国家和地区政府投资建设项目管理模式的对比分析1165.2国内部分试点地区政府投资建设项目管理改革现实1195.2.1深圳工务局模式1205.2.2上海代建制模式1235.2.3厦门政府投资建设项目管理情况介绍1265.2.4珠海市政府投资建设项目管理改革情况调查1285.2.5试点地区政府投资建设项目管理体制分析130第6章结论1326.1本书研究成果总结1326.2存在问题及今后方向133参考文献134
政府投资建设项目具有结构复杂、规模大、工期长、造价高的特点,其造价受国内外政治、经济形势、财政政策、政治体制、项目管理模式、管理人员、时间、设计方案等诸多因素的影响,从决策阶段、实施阶段到使用阶段,政府项目全生命周期造价经历从不确定渐进到确定的过程。因此,政府投资建设项目造价的确定和控制系统具有显著的非线性复杂系统的特点。本书运用非线性复杂系统控制理论和方法,引进国际全生命周期造价管理的思想,结合国内政府投资建设项目的资金控制和项目管理现状及动态,从以下几个方面展开研究和探讨。① 投资确定和决策必须科学化。可行性研究和设计阶段是投资确定及控制重点,必须运用全生命周期投资理论进行建设项目投资估算和投资、设计方案优化;运用显著性成本法(Cost Significant method,CS法)简化投资估算、设计概算或修正概算计算程序;在有足够类似的工程投资数据条件下,选择足够数量的类似工程作为训练样本,用 BP 神经网络进行训练,进而预测出新建项目的显著成本项目(CSIs)造价;运用模糊聚类方法进行拟建项目 CSIs 和显著性因子的贴近度聚类及投资估算,并进行差异修正;当类似工程的工程投资数据不足时,运用 GM(1,1)或 GM(1,N)灰色预测系统进行新建项目投资估算;当类似工程的工程投资数据匮乏(没有或仅有极少量数据)时,利用以模糊语言形式存在的专家经验,采用模糊推理系统对新建项目进行投资估算;在施工图设计阶段,在具体设计方案和设计工程量已准确确定的情况下,仍按现行工程量清单法进行施工图预算。② 投资控制必须全过程化。以非线性理论为基础,运用显著性成本法简化模型,突出投资控制重点,简化投资控制数据处理程序的方法。在此基础上,建立全过程连续时间造价动态系统的优化和控制模型,运用庞德里亚金(Pontryagin)极大值原理,根据所获信息的性质,建立了离散和连续型的投资优化控模型;并建立了全过程以主动控制为主的GM(1,1)模型和已获价值理论方法(Earned Value Management,EVM)模型,能够随时更替旧的信息,动态灰色预测控制各阶段工程造价,使管理者及时掌握投资工期变动信息,并对其发展趋势做出科学的预测和判断,实现投资工期的事前主动控制。本书通过研究,建立适合中国国情的、符合国际惯例的政府投资建设项目全生命周期复杂系统控制管理模式,为从根本上解决我国政府投资建设项目“三超”“烂尾”“马拉松”等问题,在保证工期质量的前提下,确保政府投资建设项目投资额度合理,实际投资不超过投资限额,杜绝腐败和滥用资金现象,为政府项目的投资管理、决策、实施部门和单位提供决策参考。特别感谢南阳师范学院在本书的写作和出版过程中给予的大力支持。限于笔者水平,书中难免存在缺陷和不足,敬请批评指正。王新征2019年5月
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